[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 022335
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022334
KYZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-030100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1395
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0634 PM CDT Sun Jul 02 2023

Areas affected...Extreme northeast AR into western/middle TN and
southwest KY

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 430...431...

Valid 022334Z - 030100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 430, 431
continues.

SUMMARY...Some threat for damaging gusts and isolated hail continues
this evening.

DISCUSSION...Convection has thus far struggled to attain severe
intensity across parts of western/middle TN into southwest KY,
potentially due in part to being in between the more strongly forced
regime to the north, and the somewhat more moist regime to the
south. Outflow is now approaching from both the north and south
across the region, but a corridor of relatively undisturbed
environment remains between these outflows, where MLCAPE in excess
of 2000 J/kg and effective shear of 30-40 kt continues to be
conditionally favorable for organized convection.

A small bowing segment east of Paducah will pose a damaging-wind
threat across parts of southwest KY this evening. It remains
possible that one or more clusters could evolve into western/middle
TN, which would result in an increasing damaging-wind threat
along/east of the northern outflow, and generally north of the
outflow approaching from the south.

WW 430 and WW 431 are scheduled to expire at 01 UTC. Local watch
extension may be needed, depending on short-term trends regarding
storm intensity and downstream instability.

..Dean.. 07/02/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   35549038 36598837 37118747 37408640 36998613 36188600
            36028633 35518863 35239017 35549038
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