[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 162002
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162002
TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-162200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0166
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2023

Areas affected...the Tennessee Valley area

Concerning...Tornado Watch 39...

Valid 162002Z - 162200Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 39 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe potential -- including local tornado risk -- is
evident across WW 39.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows that storms have increased in
intensity across the area, coincident with gradual/modest
destabilization -- indicated by RAP-based objective analysis and
confirmed by 18Z BNA RAOB revealing roughly 300 J/kg mixed-layer
CAPE.

While instability remains modest, very strong shear is indicated,
with low-level south-southwesterly flow veering rapidly and
increasing to 55 kt at roughly 1.5km per the BNA RAOB, resulting in
intense low-level shear.  Within the past hour, storms seem to have
responded to the increasingly favorable overall environment, with
rotating storms now indicated over eastern Humphreys County
Tennessee (which will move into Dickson County shortly), and across
McNairy County Tennessee and adjacent Tippah and Alcorn Counties in
Mississippi.

Expect severe weather potential -- including accompanying tornado
risk -- to continue over the next couple of hours.

..Goss.. 02/16/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   33848978 35838829 36658675 37098596 36898526 36338500
            34378669 33698854 33848978
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
https://www.nashvilleweather.net

Follow us on Facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/nashvilleweather

Follow us on Twitter at:
https://twitter.com/nashwxnet