[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 052311
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052311
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-060115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1852
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0611 PM CDT Sat Aug 05 2023

Areas affected...Lower Ohio River Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 052311Z - 060115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing along a surface trough/cool front
will likely pose a hail/wind risk over the next few hours through
the lower Ohio River Valley.

DISCUSSION...Several thunderstorms have rapidly intensified over
southern IL over the past hour. These storms are developing within
the apex of buoyancy gradient that extends into the lower OH River
Valley with MLCAPE upwards of 2000-3000 J/kg and (evidently)
negligible inhibition. VWP observations from KPAH show mid-level
winds between 30-35 knots with much of the environmental shear
concentrated in the lowest 2-3 km. While not overly favorable for
storm organization, this wind profile is adequate for loosely
organized supercells. Furthermore, storm motions largely orthogonal
to the initiating surface trough will favor discrete to
semi-discrete cells that may pose a severe hail risk prior to
gradual upscale growth downstream (with an attendant increase in
damaging wind potential). Given the modest kinematics, it is unclear
whether these buoyancy-driven cells will pose a sufficiently long
threat to warrant watch issuance, but trends will be monitored.

..Moore/Mosier.. 08/05/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   37228975 37878917 38228836 38428658 38188607 37828603
            37348621 36878657 36468748 36418850 36528931 36718981
            37228975
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