[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 052248
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052247
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-060045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1850
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0547 PM CDT Sat Aug 05 2023

Areas affected...Mid-Mississippi value to middle Tennessee and
northern Alabama

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 590...

Valid 052247Z - 060045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 590
continues.

SUMMARY...An organizing line of thunderstorms will likely migrate
eastward into middle Tennessee and northern Alabama over the next
few hours. Damaging winds will remain possible, but the longevity of
the line remains unclear based on recent radar trends. Conditions
will be monitored for the need for a downstream watch through the
evening.

DISCUSSION...Cold pool amalgamation is well underway across
southwest TN and northern MS per latest KNQA imagery and surface
observations, suggesting that a transition to a linear storm mode is
occurring. New development along the outflow boundaries, cooling
cloud top temperatures, and an uptick in lightning flashes all
suggest this developing line is intensifying. However, a few outflow
boundaries are out-running their parent convection, suggesting that
low to mid-level kinematics are too meager to maintain balanced
updraft/downdraft convergence zones. Because of this, it is unclear
whether the recent intensification is a short-term trend or
indicative of the start of a longer-term threat that could persist
well into northern AL and southern middle TN where buoyancy remains
very favorable for robust convection (MLCAPE >= 1500 J/kg). While
some wind damage threat will likely persist into the evening hours,
it remains uncertain whether a downstream watch will be required -
though trends will continue to be monitored.

..Moore.. 08/05/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   34728982 35078932 35558889 35928881 36058856 35928592
            35368589 34868592 34528613 34288634 34188693 34278774
            34498888 34728982
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