[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 252032
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252031
TNZ000-KYZ000-VAZ000-252230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1829
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0331 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022

Areas affected...Eastern TN and southeast KY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 252031Z - 252230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts and large hail will be possible as
storms track eastward this afternoon. A watch is not currently
expected.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from OHX shows a broken band of
loosely organized splitting cells tracking eastward ahead of cold
front moving through Middle TN. OHX VWP data and the BNA 18Z
observed sounding show strong westerly flow aloft, resulting in a
long/straight hodograph characterized by 40-50 kt of effective
shear. Ahead of the convection, cloud clearing has allowed
temperatures to warm into the middle/upper 70s amid middle 60s
dewpoints. These boundary-layer conditions, combined with the
favorable deep-layer shear could result in some modest
intensification of the ongoing convection through the afternoon. The
primary concern will be large hail and locally severe gusts with any
splitting supercell structures or organized clusters. A watch is not
currently expected, though trends will be monitored.

..Weinman/Thompson.. 09/25/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON   35948603 36528550 37088469 37388399 37498335 37368262
            37088234 36588257 35968303 35288442 35388527 35668591
            35948603
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