[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 031807
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031806
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-032030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1760
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 PM CDT Sat Sep 03 2022

Areas affected...Parts of the mid-MS Valley into the lower OH Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 031806Z - 032030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging wind gusts will
be possible through the afternoon. Watch issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Convection is gradually increasing in coverage and
intensity this afternoon, near and east of a slow-moving midlevel
low over eastern MO. Thus far, the strongest storms have developed
within a weak surface confluence zone from middle TN into southwest
KY, where diurnal heating and rich low-level moisture have resulted
in MLCAPE increasing to greater than 1500 J/kg (per recent
mesoanalyses). Midlevel southwesterly flow is rather weak, but with
locally backed surface winds in this area, deep-layer shear has
increased into the 20-30 kt range (per regional VWPs), which could
support some modest storm organization. Additional strong storm
development will be possible farther west toward northwest TN and
far southeast MO, in areas where relatively limited cloudiness is
allowing for robust diurnal heating/destabilization, though
effective shear will be somewhat weaker (compared to farther east)
due to greater veering of winds at the surface.

Relatively large PW will support a threat of localized wet
microbursts across the region. Weak midlevel lapse rates will tend
to limit the severe hail risk, but at least small hail will be
possible with the strongest cells. Overall, the threat is expected
to remain too marginal for watch issuance.

..Dean/Bunting.. 09/03/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   35298793 35948963 36579006 37118941 37678899 38308709
            38088654 37318603 36918595 36268582 35608657 35188726
            35298793
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