[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 122016
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122015
KYZ000-TNZ000-122215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1866
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0315 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

Areas affected...Central/Eastern KY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 122015Z - 122215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated supercells capable of hail, damaging gusts, and a
tornado are possible across central and eastern KY for the remainder
of the afternoon. Limited storm coverage is currently anticipated,
meriting low watch probabilities.

DISCUSSION...Filtered diurnal heating has allow temperatures to
reach the mid to upper 70s across much of central/eastern. This
heating has occurred amid dewpoints in the upper 50s/low 60s,
contributing to modest air mass destabilization. Large-scale ascent
attendant to the approaching shortwave trough and persistent
warm-air advection has resulted in isolated convective initiation. A
corridor of stronger low-level flow is contributing to slightly
better low-level curative and the development of a few supercells.
This trend will likely persist, with the development of a few more
supercells possible. Hail appears to be the primary threat with
these storms, with isolated damaging wind gusts and/or a tornado
also possible. Storm coverage is expected to remain isolated, owing
primarily to the limited forcing for ascent and relative confined
area of better destabilization/heating.

..Mosier/Guyer.. 10/12/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON   36598519 37368535 38058472 38268345 37888272 37068292
            36688389 36598519
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