[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 120225
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120224
WVZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-INZ000-MSZ000-120730-

Mesoscale Discussion 0242
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0824 PM CST Fri Mar 11 2022

Areas affected...Portions of Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 120224Z - 120730Z

SUMMARY...Heavy snow in western portions of Tennessee and Kentucky
will continue north and east this evening and into the overnight.
Rapid cooling ahead of this activity will support a quick change to
snow. Rates of 1-2 inches per hour are possible, particularly in
areas of terrain enhancement.

DISCUSSION...KNQA radar imagery has shown a band of 30-35 dBZ
precipitation develop and move through western Tennessee. Higher
values of KDP aloft suggest heavier snowfall rates are possible
which has been corroborated by recent surface reports within the
region. This band is expected to continue to the north and east this
evening into the overnight. Downstream of this band, temperatures in
Middle/eastern Tennessee and eastern Kentucky are still in the 40s
to low 50s F. As the shortwave continues into the Mid-South, a
deepening surface low development in the central Gulf Coast will
support an increase in cold air advection across these areas. This,
along with cooling within heavier precipitation bands, will support
a relatively quick transition to snow. Frontogenesis at 850-700 mb
and ascent with the shortwave will support 1-2 inch per hour snow
rates. The greatest rates are most likely along the western
foothills/slopes of the Appalachians where upslope flow at low
levels will enhance vertical motion.

..Wendt.. 03/12/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...FFC...ILN...LMK...OHX...HUN...
PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   35098989 35818877 36468774 36738764 37758657 38168575
            38618488 38828420 38768284 38048232 36948264 35458446
            34898558 34678683 34638804 34528937 34768987 35098989
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