[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 070732
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070731
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-070900-

Mesoscale Discussion 0215
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 AM CST Mon Mar 07 2022

Areas affected...Southwest KY...Southern IL...Far Southwest
IN...Northern Middle TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 070731Z - 070900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The severe thunderstorm risk is expected to persist
eastward and a new watch will likely be needed downstream of Tornado
Watch 34 across portions of southwest KY and perhaps Middle TN.

DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms currently extends along a cold
front from about 35 miles north of EVV southwestward through
southern IL, far southeast MO and into far northeast AR. A few
bowing segments have been noted within the line over the last
several hours, with the most recent segment now approaching the MO
Bootheel. Winds preceding this line are very strong, with surface
observations showing numerous 30-35 kt gusts and the KPAH VAD
recently sampling around 70 kt at 1km AGL. Buoyancy ahead of the
line is modest, with mesoanalysis estimating MLCAPE ranges from just
over 500 J/kg near southwest MO to closer to 250 J/kg closer to the
IL/IN/KY border intersection. This limited buoyancy will likely keep
storm severity muted near the OH River while the combination of
buoyancy and shear results in some severe potential farther south
over most of southwest KY. The primary severe risk will be damaging
wind gusts, although the strength of the low-level flow suggests
embedded QLCS tornadoes are also possible. The resulting severe risk
will likely necessitate the need for new watch downstream of Tornado
Watch 34.

..Mosier/Guyer.. 03/07/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36639014 37128959 37538897 37968811 38058688 37468646
            36848666 36548721 36498805 36508919 36478972 36639014
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