[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 121911
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121910
VAZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-122115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1458
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 PM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022

Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern KY into far western VA
and far northeastern TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 121910Z - 122115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for mainly damaging winds may develop this
afternoon. Watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...Convection is gradually increasing in coverage across
parts of central/eastern KY this afternoon along and near a weak
cold front. A very moist low-level airmass is present to the south
of this boundary, with dewpoints generally in the upper 60s to mid
70s. Modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates and diurnal heating of
this moist airmass are contributing to around 1500-2500 J/kg of
MLCAPE per recent mesoanalysis estimates. This region remains on the
southern periphery of an upper trough over the Northeast. But,
mid-level west-northwesterly flow does increase to around 30-35 kt
based on latest VWP estimates from KLVX/KJKL. Similar values of
deep-layer shear should be enough for modest updraft organization,
with loosely organized multicells possible. Occasional damaging wind
gusts should be the main threat as these thunderstorms develop
southeastward across eastern KY and vicinity through the rest of the
afternoon. It remains unclear whether sufficient thunderstorm
coverage and intensity will be realized to justify a watch. But,
observational trends will be closely monitored.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 07/12/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON   37268519 38068280 37238184 36628249 36288372 36298477
            37268519
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