[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 081730
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081729
WVZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-081930-

Mesoscale Discussion 1416
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Fri Jul 08 2022

Areas affected...south central and eastern Kentucky...adjacent
portions of northern Tennessee into central West Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 081729Z - 081930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...There appears at least some potential for an intensifying
cluster of thunderstorms to become better organized with increasing
risk for damaging wind gusts, while spreading southeastward across
the region through 4-6 PM EDT.  It is still uncertain that a severe
weather watch is needed, but trends are being monitored for this
possibility.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development has recently begun to
intensify along the leading edge of southeastward advancing
convective outflow, as surface heating has contributed to erosion of
inhibition for boundary-layer air characterized by seasonably high
moisture content (including surface dew points in the mid/upper 70s
F).  It is possible that this is being aided by large-scale ascent
associated with weak low-level warm advection, and substantive
further intensification is possible as activity advances eastward
and southeastward during the next few hours.

The inflow into the updrafts is probably becoming characterized by
large CAPE on the order of 2000-3000 J/kg. However the westerly
deep-layer mean flow within which the convection is embedded appears
only on the order of 10-20 kt, with activity generally out ahead of
the leading edge of a belt of 20-30 kt (in the 850-500 mb layer)
flow nosing through the lower Ohio Valley.

Still, with continuing upscale convective growth, the development of
a lower/mid-tropospheric mesoscale convective vortex is possible.
This may be accompanied by sufficient strengthening of rear inflow
to contribute to increasing risk for strong surface gusts at least
approaching severe limits, aided by heavy precipitation loading in
downdrafts.

..Kerr/Thompson.. 07/08/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON   37348575 37398527 37508460 37708413 38138346 38458285
            38528106 38288064 36798335 36388492 36968611 37348575
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