[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 060847
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060847
KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-061015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1964
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0247 AM CST Mon Dec 06 2021

Areas affected...southwestern Kentucky

Concerning...Tornado Watch 551...

Valid 060847Z - 061015Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 551 continues.

SUMMARY...Local risk for severe weather -- mainly in the form of
gusty/damaging winds -- will continue over the next couple of hours.
 As WW 551 nears its scheduled 10Z expiration, new/downstream WW
issuance is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a frontal band of convection
moving across northern and western Kentucky at this time.  The
strongest storms within the broader bend exist within in a short
segment about to cross the Mississippi River from far southeastern
Missouri and into far western Kentucky.

Ahead of the frontal band, a secondary, loosely organized zone of
pre-frontal convection is indicated.  Ahead of the front across
Kentucky, a seasonally moist boundary layer (dewpoints in the mid
50s to near 60) is contributing to modest, slightly elevated CAPE
(at or below 500 J/kg), which will support continuation of
convection near and ahead of the front through the morning.

However, given the aforementioned, weakly stable boundary layer, and
flow aloft aligned roughly along the front/convective band, severe
potential should continue to remain limited/local.  As such, current
indications are that WW 551 can be allowed to expire at 10Z, with a
new WW not required to cover very limited, lingering severe risk.

..Goss.. 12/06/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36548970 37058916 37548733 37238695 36798706 36398930
            36548970
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