[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 060528
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060528
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-060730-

Mesoscale Discussion 1963
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 PM CST Sun Dec 05 2021

Areas affected...Southeast Missouri...Southern Illinois...Western
Kentucky

Concerning...Tornado Watch 551...

Valid 060528Z - 060730Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 551 continues.

SUMMARY...Wind-damage, hail and an isolated tornado threat will
continue to be possible across WW 551 over the next few hours. There
is a chance that a new weather watch issuance could be needed to the
east of the current watch during the early overnight period.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from Paducah shows a nearly
continuous line extending southwestward from southern Illinois into
southeast Missouri. The line is located ahead of a cold front along
a zone of enhanced low-level convergence. Ahead of the line, MLCAPE
is estimated to be in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range. In addition,
moderate deep-layer shear is evident on the Paducah WSR-88D VWP. The
VWP has 0-6 km shear near 40 Kt with a looped hodograph. This
environment will enable some storms along the line to become
organized. Wind damage and hail will be possible with the more
intense segments of the line. A brief tornado may also occur with
rotating cells embedded in the line. Although a new watch can not be
ruled out to the east of the current watch, weaker instability is
present across central Kentucky suggesting that the severe threat
should become more isolated as the line moves eastward.

..Broyles.. 12/06/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...

LAT...LON   36498804 36678681 37098580 37928581 38268632 38678755
            38558880 38348953 37809001 37389058 37079090 36599081
            36489035 36498804
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