[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 230425
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230424
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-230630-

Mesoscale Discussion 0220
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2020

Areas affected...Far southeast Arkansas...southwest
Tennessee...northern Mississippi...northern Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 230424Z - 230630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Mainly small hail, with a couple stones over 1 inch in
diameter, will be possible with elevated storms over the next few
hours. A WW issuance is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Discrete cells have recently developed and intensified
within a low-level WAA advection regime, atop a relatively stable
boundary layer. Modest forcing for ascent, combined with very strong
deep-layer shear (bulk effective shear values exceeding 50 knots)
has allowed for some of the stronger cores to become organized and
achieve very modest mid-level rotation. Nonetheless, the ambient
environment is weakly buoyant, with poor lapse rates throughout the
troposphere and only modest 925-850 mb moisture driving MUCAPE
values that barely exceed 500 J/kg. While current storm structures
may promote hail development, the weak mid-level lapse rates and
aforementioned buoyancy suggest that most hail will be relatively
small in nature, though a couple stones may briefly exceed 1 inch in
diameter in the strongest, most organized storms.

The very sparse and brief nature of the severe hail threat precludes
a WW issuance.

..Squitieri.. 03/23/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   33019239 34179150 35109054 35418988 35308854 35278824
            34858665 34608657 34318681 34108723 33628842 33109024
            32799135 33019239
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