[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 030300
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030300
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-030430-

Mesoscale Discussion 0137
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0900 PM CST Mon Mar 02 2020

Areas affected...Parts of southeast Missouri into southern
Illinois...western Kentucky and adjacent portions of southern
Indiana

Concerning...Tornado Watch 35...

Valid 030300Z - 030430Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 35 continues.

SUMMARY...The risk for strong surface gusts may increase through
10-11 PM CST near the Ohio River, across southern Illinois into
western Kentucky.  Otherwise, storms may remain capable of producing
marginally severe hail, with an additional tornado or two also
possible.

DISCUSSION...At 02Z, 2-hourly surface pressure falls (up to around 2
mb) were maximized near/just west of Cape Girardeau MO, ahead of the
surface low approaching Poplar Bluff MO.  This appears the focus for
strongest convective development, which still includes discrete
supercells, but appears to be in the process of consolidating into
an organizing storm cluster.

As the surface low continues to migrate east-northeast across and
east of the Mississippi River (to the east of Cape Girardeau)
through 04-05Z, the storm cluster is expected to continue evolving
and spreading eastward ahead of it through far southern/southeastern
Illinois, southwestern Indiana and western Kentucky.  Although warm
sector mixed-layer CAPE (which peaked at up to 1000 J/kg) feeding
into convection appears on the wane, it probably will remain
sufficient to maintain vigorous convection through late evening.
Southwesterly 850 mb flow is forecast to continue strengthening (to
40-50 kt) across the warm sector into the vicinity of the front
extending to the east of the surface low, and enlarging low-level
hodographs may contribute to increasing potential for strong surface
gusts.

Given increasing low-level shear, some potential for an additional
tornado or two may remain, particularly with any lingering sustained
discrete storms, however near surface thermodynamic conditions
appear marginal for this threat.

..Kerr.. 03/03/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36929089 37918887 37948797 37498643 36708704 36668839
            36548986 36479074 36929089
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