[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 022154
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022154
KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-030000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0135
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 PM CST Mon Mar 02 2020

Areas affected...northern Arkansas...southern Missouri...western
Kentucky...southern Illinois...and far northwestern Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 022154Z - 030000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Towering cumulus continues to deepen across the discussion
area, and eventual severe thunderstorm development is possible.  A
WW may be needed over the next couple of hours pending convective
trends.

DISCUSSION...Deepening cumulus persists across the discussion area,
likely in response to surface convergence near a boundary draped
along the northern extent of the discussion area.  Point forecast
soundings continue to indicate appreciable capping across the region
- explaining the failed convective attempts across southern
MO/northern AR so far this afternoon, though radar echoes are
beginning to appear with convection across southeastern Missouri in
the last 15 minutes.

Continued deepening of the cumulus field is expected to continue -
with more widespread convective development expected as a mid-level
wave migrates southeastward out of Nebraska/Iowa toward the region
later.  This should result in at least isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development, which is supported by recent CAMs.  Steep
mid-level lapse rates (7.5-9C/km), strong deep shear, and fast flow
aloft will support updraft organization and supercellular
development, with hail (perhaps significant) expected with stronger
cores over time.  Damaging wind gusts can also be expected with the
storms.  A WW issuance may be needed in the next 1-2 hours across
the region pending convective trends.

..Cook/Grams.. 03/02/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   37778913 37569050 36959240 36619293 35809276 35899082
            36708794 37248753 37778913
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
http://www.nashvilleweather.net

Follow us on Facebook at:
http://www.facebook.com/nashvilleweather

Follow us on Twitter at:
http://twitter.com/nashwxnet