[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 221655
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221654
KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-221900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1311
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020

Areas affected...portions of southern MO...northern AR...southern
IL...southern IN...and western/central KY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 221654Z - 221900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Sporadic strong to locally damaging wind gusts are
possible today from portions of the Ozarks to the lower Ohio Valley.
Convection will remain largely unorganized and transient in
time/space and a watch is not expected at this time.

DISCUSSION...Areas of thunderstorms are developing early this
afternoon in a broad CU field ahead of a surface trough, stretching
from southern MO/northern AR east/northeast to southern IN and
central KY. Strong heating of an airmass characterized by low to mid
70s F surface dewpoints has resulted in rapid destabilization of the
region, with MLCAPE between 1000-2000 J/kg noted in latest
mesoanalysis. Midlevel lapse rates and effective shear will remain
modest across the region. This will generally limit organization,
with pulse/multi-cell clusters expected. However, PW values
approaching 2 inches and steep low level lapse rates will support
occasional wet microbursts, and a few locally damaging gusts are
possible.

..Leitman/Hart.. 07/22/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...
LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   37448488 36788668 36248993 35869268 36229318 36709317
            37169241 38278960 38768761 38938675 39178523 39108450
            38428422 37938447 37448488
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