[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 201742
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201742
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-201945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1290
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2020

Areas affected...Southeast Missouri into central Kentucky

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 201742Z - 201945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Gradually strengthening thunderstorms may pose a risk for
severe hail/wind through the afternoon hours.

DISCUSSION...Convective initiation is well underway from southeast
MO into central KY as storms develop along a weakly confluent
stationary boundary. Although the environment over this region is
moderately unstable (around 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE), only around 20
knots of boundary-parallel effective bulk shear, coupled with
along-boundary storm motions, should lead to initially discrete
cells merging into disorganized clusters. In the near term, discrete
storms may pose a transient wind and hail with any stronger updraft
pulse prior to storm interactions/upscale growth. Heading into the
mid to late afternoon hours, gradually increasing shear across this
region may lead to increased storm organization and a more robust
severe wind threat, although confidence on when this uptick in storm
organization/severity will occur is somewhat low. Trends will be
monitored and a watch is possible later this afternoon.

..Moore/Hart.. 07/20/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...

LAT...LON   37999073 38028855 38078592 37998459 37548419 36658454
            36498510 36348699 36348897 36739049 37139092 37999073
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