[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 311717
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311716
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-311845-

Mesoscale Discussion 1653
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1216 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2020

Areas affected...far eastern AR...the MO Bootheel and portions of
western TN into northern MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 311716Z - 311845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong gusts are possible with strongest cells this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms are developing early this
afternoon ahead of an outflow boundary extending across eastern AR
near the MS River, then arcing westward across southern AR. Strong
heating ahead of the boundary has resulted in a corridor of moderate
destabilization across northern MS into western TN, aided by surface
dewpoints in the mid-to-upper 70s F. While storms will experience
modest effective shear around 25-35 kt, resulting in some
semi-organized cells/clusters, overall intensity/longevity of
strongest storms should be limited by poor midlevel lapse rates and
lack of stronger forcing across the region. Nevertheless, a few
strong gusts could occur, especially in pockets of steepening low
level lapse rates, as PW values greater than 2 inches aid in wet
microburst potential. Overall, the severe threat is expected to be
limited and rather transient across the region and a severe
thunderstorm watch is not expected.

..Leitman/Grams.. 08/31/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   34319096 35039054 35469056 35839064 36319068 36499038
            36458912 36338837 36278817 36088777 35848765 35268794
            34308884 33618980 33399036 33389082 33479109 33729119
            34319096
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
https://www.nashvilleweather.net

Follow us on Facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/nashvilleweather

Follow us on Twitter at:
https://twitter.com/nashwxnet