[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 302015
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302015
TNZ000-KYZ000-302245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1645
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0315 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2020

Areas affected...Portions of western/middle TN and southern KY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 302015Z - 302245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to damaging wind gusts will be possible
with storms moving eastward through the early evening. Watch
issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...20Z surface analysis shows a weak front draped
generally west to east across western/middle TN, with a moist and
moderately unstable airmass present south of the front. With robust
diurnal heating, MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg is present this afternoon
across this region. Additional convective development is anticipated
along/near this boundary through the rest of the afternoon as a weak
impulse moves eastward from the Mid-South into the TN
Valley/Southeast. Compared to locations farther south, recent VWP
estimates from KOHX/KHPX in middle TN and southern KY show modest
strengthening of west-southwesterly winds to around 25-35 kt in the
3-8 km layer. Low-level flow, although generally weak, is also
backed to east-southeasterly near the front. A combination of
veering and strengthening winds through mid levels should support up
to 25-30 kt of effective bulk shear, sufficient for modest storm
organization. Multicells and small clusters capable of producing
mainly isolated strong to damaging wind gusts should be the main
severe threat as convection moves eastward across middle TN and
southern KY through the early evening. The marginal deep-layer shear
suggests that the overall severe threat will probably remain too
limited/isolated to justify watch issuance this afternoon.

..Gleason/Grams.. 08/30/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   35028555 35668497 36468498 37018548 37238621 37218684
            36938760 36408832 35038848 35028555
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