[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 140737
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140737
INZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-140900-

Mesoscale Discussion 0200
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0237 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019

Areas affected...Far Southern IN...Western KY...Far Northwest TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 140737Z - 140900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few isolated damaging wind gusts are possible across far
southern IN, western KY, and far northwest TN during the next hour
or two.

DISCUSSION...Predominately shallow convection ongoing across western
KY and far northwest TN has shown some intensification over the past
hour or so. Given that the overall thermodynamic environment has
shown little improvement over the past few hours, this
intensification is likely a result of stronger forcing for ascent
and increased vertical shear associated with the approaching cyclone
and strengthening mid-level flow.

Regional radar imagery reveals a striated linear structure, with
several elongated bands of higher reflectivity. Forecast soundings
suggest this activity is elevated above a shallow stable layer and
the general expectation is for this activity to have little notable
impact at the surface. However, storm interactions may briefly
result in strong enough downdrafts to penetrate the stable
low-levels, resulting in isolated gusts at the surface. Coverage of
any damaging wind gusts is expected to be very isolated. Duration is
also expected to be limited, as the downstream, low-level air mass
across central KY and south-central IN becomes increasingly more
stable.

..Mosier/Bunting.. 03/14/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...

LAT...LON   36358925 36748901 37588820 38458777 38698760 38738746
            38688710 38448682 37538673 36488741 36158884 36358925
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