[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 212214
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212214
TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-212345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1180
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0514 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

Areas affected...portions of northeast AR...the MO
Bootheel...western KY into western TN and northern MS/AL

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 418...

Valid 212214Z - 212345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 418
continues.

SUMMARY...A damaging bow echo will continue to shift east/southeast
this evening. A new severe thunderstorm watch will be needed across
parts of northeast AR into TN, perhaps replacing portions of WW 418.

DISCUSSION...A well defined damaging bow echo continue to shift
southeast into far southeast MO toward northeast AR, western KY and
eventually western TN. Most recently, Poplar Bluff measured a severe
gust of 51 kt and Cape Girardeau measured 63 kt. Multiple mPING
reports of wind damage have also been noted over the past 30 minutes
across Cape Girardeau and Scott Counties in MO and Union County in
far southern IL. Regional VAD wind profile data show an intense
rear-inflow jet with 50+ kt winds around 1.5-4 km ARL from the PAH,
SGX and LSX radars. This descending rear-inflow jet is aiding in
producing these damaging gusts, and is evident in reflectivity data
where low returns are noted behind the initial line of convection.

Downstream of the bow echo, outflow from another long-lived bow echo
moving east/southeast toward central KY arcs westward into the apex
of the southeast MO bow echo. There has been re-invigoration of the
convection at this intersection with increasing reflectivity noted
in 5 and 7 km CAPPI. Recent track on this bow gives a motion toward
the east/southeast at nearly 60 kt, which will bring the system to
the edge of WW 418 between 00-01z. The southeastern flank of the bow
now shifting into northeast AR is a little less organized and not
progressing as quickly as the apex region further north/northeast.
However, given extreme instability and a very warm/moist downstream
environment with surface dewpoints in the mid 70s, a severe threat
will persist into the evening hours to the west of WW 418. As a
result, a new watch will likely be needed across parts of northeast
AR eastward into TN.

..Leitman/Kerr.. 06/21/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LZK...
SGF...

LAT...LON   37148989 37498892 37788749 37578634 37068558 36538527
            35398569 34708626 34248727 34028877 34119034 34539084
            35479164 36049187 36379162 36559118 37148989
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
http://www.nashvilleweather.net

Follow us on Facebook at:
http://www.facebook.com/nashvilleweather

Follow us on Twitter at:
http://twitter.com/nashwxnet