[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 211946
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211946
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-212115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1178
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

Areas affected...southeast Missouri...southern Illinois and
indiana...western and central Kentucky and middle Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 211946Z - 212115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Southern extension of a large MCS posing a risk for
damaging wind is expected to continue southeast into southern parts
of the OH Valley and a portion of the TN Valley this afternoon into
early evening. A downstream WW will probably be needed from
southeast MO through western and central KY, southern IN and
northern TN.

DISCUSSION...A large MCS with occasional strong to severe gusts
extending from east central IL through southern MO continues
southeast at 35-40 kt. A warm front stretches from middle TN
northwest into southern IL where it intersects the squall line.
South of this boundary, very strong instability with 3000-4000 J/kg
MLCAPE is in place. Southwesterly low-level winds will maintain
influx of very moist and unstable air, and convergence associated
with the cold pool should help to sustain storms through the
strongly unstable environment next several hours. The atmosphere is
more strongly capped with western extent into northern AR. Current
thinking is that storms may intensify/reorganize over southern IL
and continue southeast along instability gradient through western KY
and northern parts of middle TN.

..Dial/Hart.. 06/21/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   37049054 37618824 37608714 38568638 38458561 37258524
            36098607 36478952 36609064 37049054
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