[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 202101
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202101
TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-202230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1814
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0401 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

Areas affected...Portions of far northeast Arkansas...far southeast
Missouri...and western Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 202101Z - 202230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A localized damaging wind threat associated with the
western portion of the MCS may require a Watch by 22z.

DISCUSSION...The western portion of the MCS moving through the Ohio
valley has reinvigorated the last few hours despite very weak
flow/shear throughout most of the lower-to-mid troposphere, owing to
large surface-based CAPE and little to no convective inhibition.
The lack of mesoscale organization and a relatively slow motion of
the cold pool (20-25 kt) has limited the coverage of the severe wind
threat.  However, the abundance of rapidly-developing cells along
and just ahead of the southward-sagging cold pool within steep
low-level lapse rates should continue the localized severe wind
threat for an hour or two after 22z as the line enters the MCD area.
 Despite the limited time window of this threat prior to sunset, the
continued expansive cell development along the cold pool may require
a small watch before the expected weakening of the MCS, and
diminishing of the severe wind threat, after 00-01z.

..Coniglio/Thompson.. 08/20/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON   35138980 35169045 35179103 35749140 36189120 36379081
            36318931 36428854 36438819 36308781 35708767 35438777
            35248828 35098934 35138980
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