[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 132356
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132355
NCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-140100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1731
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0655 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019

Areas affected...eastern Arkansas...northern Mississippi...northern
Alabama...northern Georgia...and the southern half of Tennessee

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 579...

Valid 132355Z - 140100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 579
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will gradually shift southward
across the discussion area through the early evening.  The
probability of a new Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance for portions
of the discussion area is 20%.

DISCUSSION...Scattered clusters of storms continue to persist across
the remaining valid portions of WW 579, with other marginally severe
convection in eastern Arkansas.  More recently, scattered storms
have begun to develop across western Tennessee between these two
clusters of storms along a slowly southward-moving front across the
area.  These storms are in a weakly sheared, yet strongly unstable
environment, which should continue to support isolated instances of
gusty winds and marginally severe hail.  Storms have drifted
southward across the discussion area and should continue to do so
through slightly after dusk, when nocturnal boundary layer cooling
results in a decrease in overall updraft intensity.  Furthermore,
western Tennessee convection may continue to expand and grow upscale
with time, posing a wind/hail risk into northern Mississippi over
the next couple hours.  On the whole, these convective trends will
probably not necessitate a new WW issuance.

..Cook.. 08/13/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   35718562 35928645 35928776 35758827 35598885 35508968
            35579023 35689053 35549091 35129111 34739098 34159083
            33859025 33798904 33998831 34198731 34418648 34358567
            34478479 34518447 34708423 35208417 35428428 35538470
            35718562
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