[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 070119
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070119
TNZ000-KYZ000-070245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1656
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0819 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2019

Areas affected...Middle TN...South-central KY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 070119Z - 070245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging winds are possible until around 02-03Z
with ongoing thunderstorm complex, but a gradual weakening trend is
expected with time. Watch issuance is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Consolidation of earlier thunderstorms across KY has
resulted in a forward-propagating cluster moving into middle TN.
KOHX radar depicts surging outflow approaching the Nashville metro
area, which will result in a short-term damaging wind risk between
now and at least 02Z.

The 00Z BNA sounding was moderately unstable (MLCAPE ~1500 J/kg),
though low-level flow was weak and deep-layer shear only marginally
favorable for organized convection. With these factors in mind, a
gradual weakening trend is expected with time as the boundary layer
stabilizes this evening. However, some threat for damaging wind will
likely continue until around the 02-03Z timeframe as the complex and
associated cold pool continue southeastward across middle TN. Due to
the relatively limited duration of the anticipated threat, watch
issuance is not expected.

..Dean/Thompson.. 08/07/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...MEG...

LAT...LON   36408833 36528699 36878632 37148594 37338582 37288527
            36548507 36098532 35578589 35348677 35358746 35398785
            35558828 36088851 36408833
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