[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 062243
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062243
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-070015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1654
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0543 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2019

Areas affected...Southeast MO...Northeast AR...Southern
IL...Southwest IN...Western KY...Western TN

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 555...

Valid 062243Z - 070015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 555
continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for hail and locally damaging wind will spread
southward with time into early evening. Some risk may extend south
of WW 555, though new watch issuance is considered unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing across WW 555 as
of 2230Z. Some storm consolidation has been noted across southeast
IL/far southwest IN into western KY, while convection has been
somewhat more discrete further west into southeast MO.
Moderate-to-strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg) is in place
across the region, with effective shear of 30-40 kt across southeast
MO and somewhat weaker shear (25-35 kt) further east per recent
mesoanalyses.

Where some upscale growth has occurred across the eastern portion of
WW 555, damaging wind has likely become the primary risk, though
instances of marginally severe hail will remain possible. Hail will
continue to be a threat across the western portion of WW 555, where
shear is somewhat stronger and a somewhat more discrete mode has
been noted. Isolated damaging wind will also be threat in the
western portion of the watch.

With time, some threat for hail and damaging wind will likely spread
southward out of WW 555 into portions of northeast AR and western
TN. Due to uncertainty regarding the longevity of the severe threat,
watch issuance in this area is currently unlikely, though watch
potential will be reconsidered if there is an increase in convective
organization this evening.

..Dean/Thompson.. 08/06/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   38289136 37589009 37348961 37328930 37758914 37848849
            38078759 38148728 38048688 37858647 37458638 37008659
            36698694 36248764 36068846 35908916 35878956 35839004
            35949039 36249068 36769098 37329127 38139171 38289136
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