[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 141900
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141900
TNZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-142100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0343
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

Areas affected...Portions of Eastern Tennessee and Northwest Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 141900Z - 142100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Storms have begun to initiate along a confluence zone in
eastern Tennessee. Further development southward into northwest
Georgia is possible. Strong wind fields will support organized
storms capable of all severe hazards. A tornado watch is possible
within the next hour.

DISCUSSION...In the wake of early morning convection, modest
boundary layer recovery has occurred across eastern Tennessee. An
area of agitated cumulus has developed along a confluence zone just
east of Crossville, TN. Surface observations from the last hour have
indicated that boundary layer moisture has mixed out to a degree.
Nonetheless, dewpoints in the upper-50s to low 60s have contributed
to MLCAPE values around 1000 J/kg. As storms are now beginning to
develop on the north end of the confluence band, the expectation is
for continued development southward, as supported by some CAMs.
Given the strong wind fields -- effective bulk shear of 60-75 kts
per objective mesoanalysis -- organized convection capable of all
hazards is expected. A tornado watch is possible within the next
hour.

..Wendt/Grams.. 04/14/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...

LAT...LON   35848516 36478486 36558442 36488370 36228335 35518339
            35028385 34568436 34348489 34478531 34828549 35118548
            35418531 35848516
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
http://www.nashvilleweather.net

Follow us on Facebook at:
http://www.facebook.com/nashvilleweather

Follow us on Twitter at:
http://twitter.com/nashwxnet