[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 281523
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281522
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-281715-

Mesoscale Discussion 0917
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1022 AM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

Areas affected...Tennessee...Northern Georgia...Northeast Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 281522Z - 281715Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to continue across parts of
the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachian Mountains late this
morning. Wind damage and isolated large hail will be the primary
threats. A new weather watch will likely be needed across the
region.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a quasistationary
front located from western Kentucky extending southeastward into
northern Georgia. Along and south of the boundary, moderate
instability is analyzed by the RAP with MLCAPE values estimated in
the 1500 to 3000 J/kg range. A line of training strong to severe
thunderstorms is ongoing along the instability gradient from middle
Tennessee into northern Georgia. The WSR-88D VWP near the AL-TN
stateline shows 0-6 km shear near 40 kt. This combined with
steepening low-level lapse rates late this morning will be favorable
for severe storms capable of producing wind damage and isolated
large hail. A new weather watch will be issued shortly.

..Broyles/Hart.. 06/28/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36628753 35348492 34808426 34328413 33838419 33498451
            33448499 33688578 33858624 34138677 34848791 35788884
            36538895 36838854 36628753
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