[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 280700
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280700
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-280930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0912
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

Areas affected...Northern/eastern MO...southern IL to southern
KY/northern TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 280700Z - 280930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Storms should continue to gradually increase in coverage
and perhaps intensity overnight with some of the storms potentially
capable of hail to around severe levels. A watch is not currently
expected given the relatively marginal/isolated nature of the
overall risk.

DISCUSSION...As already noted in east-central MO and more so western
KY/northern TN early in the overnight (~130am CDT), storms are
likely to continue to gradually increase in coverage and perhaps
intensity overnight from north-central/eastern MO southeastward into
southern IL and western/southern KY into northern TN. On the
periphery of a stout Plains-centered elevated mixed layer, this
increase in storm development will be aided by warm
advection/moisture transport focused along/northeast of a frontal
boundary that is draped generally northwest-southeast across the
region. Source-region air mass 00Z observed soundings from locations
such as Topeka, KS and Springfield, MO sampled very steep mid-level
lapse rates with upwards of 5000 J/kg MUCAPE. While rising upper
heights and relatively warm mid-level temperatures will not be
overly conducive for larger hail magnitudes, ample elevated buoyancy
and effective bulk shear generally around 35-40 kt could support
some elevated rotating updrafts capable of hail to near severe
levels through the early morning hours. Current thinking is that the
overall risk will be relatively marginal and isolated in nature such
that a Severe Thunderstorm Watch seems unlikely.

..Guyer.. 06/28/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON   39459364 40579382 40079198 39499057 37748722 37268534
            36738504 36028543 36318877 37509111 38539244 39459364
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