[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 242249
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242249
KYZ000-TNZ000-250045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0093
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0449 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

Areas affected...Parts of south central and southeastern Kentucky

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 242249Z - 250045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...It is not clear that an additional watch in needed in the
immediate near term, but trends are being monitored for the
possibility of an increasing severe weather threat this evening.

DISCUSSION...Ongoing isolated discrete supercell near Bowling Green
appears to be in response to an area of enhanced warm advection
associated with a branch of moderately strong 850 mb flow (around
30+ kt) splitting off the primary low-level jet nosing northward
into the middle Mississippi/lower Ohio Valley region.  This likely
is aided/associated with a mid/upper perturbation within the
subtropical stream, rounding the crest of the persistent subtropical
ridge to the southeast.

This cell is now tracking along/across the surface warm front, and
may continue northeastward faster than the warm frontal advancement.
As it moves into/above cooler boundary layer air to the north, any
tornado potential seems likely to diminish.  Even if it were to turn
more to the east, tornado potential probably will diminish as
surface dew points lower from the mid 60s to lower 60s with eastward
progression, and diurnal boundary layer cooling commences

..Kerr/Grams.. 02/24/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...

LAT...LON   37558648 37898521 38068356 37498316 36948451 36558615
            36638722 37558648
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