[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 242059
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242058
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-242200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0091
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

Areas affected...Northeast AR to Western KY/TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 242058Z - 242200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Tornado threat will increase across northeast AR into
western KY/TN into the early evening hours. Tornado watch will
likely be issued soon.

DISCUSSION...Surface low continues to track east-northeast across
northern AR along a slowly advancing warm front that currently is
draped from western KY into northern AR north of BVX. 20z sounding
from LZK exhibits a very moist and adequately buoyant sounding for
robust deep convection, with very strong shear, supportive of
supercells and organized line segments. This environment is
gradually spreading northeast and supercell/tornado threat should
increase toward the confluence of the MS/OH River region over the
next several hours. Tornado watch appears warranted for this
evolution and will likely be issued soon.

..Darrow/Hart.. 02/24/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36549111 37228946 37568747 36328741 35519055 36549111
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