[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 311722
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311722
TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-311845-

Mesoscale Discussion 1747
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 AM CST Mon Dec 31 2018

Areas affected...southwest Kentucky...western Tennessee...northwest
Alabama...and a large portion of Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 311722Z - 311845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Risk for isolated/local damaging winds and possibly a
tornado or two remains apparent at this time, with Tornado Watch
issuance being considered.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar shows a semi-organized band of convection
-- now including a few lightning strikes, extending from far
southern Illinois southward into western Mississippi, and then more
broken/weaker convection continuing southward across southwest
Mississippi and into south-central Louisiana.  The convection is
occurring near an advancing Pacific cold front -- ahead of which the
thermodynamic environment remains characterized by a moist boundary
layer but weak lapse rates aloft.  Fairly expansive warm-sector
cloud cover is also indicated, which should hinder more substantial
low-level destabilization -- and thus expect the marginal
pre-frontal thermodynamic environment to persist through the
afternoon.

With that said, strong shear -- with flow veering/increasing with
height -- is observed across the area, and is supporting weak
rotation with a few of the stronger convective cells.  One such cell
-- northeast of Vicksburg, MS -- has prompted a tornado warning due
to weak but persistent low-level rotation indicated by radar.

With time, expect a very slight/gradual increase in convective
intensity as is shifts eastward across the Tennessee/Mississippi
vicinity.  Locally damaging wind gusts, and possibly a tornado or
two, will remain possible within the advancing convective band, and
as such, a watch is being considered at this time, to cover this
risk for the remainder of the afternoon.

..Goss/Guyer.. 12/31/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   31708910 31489091 32879032 35388933 36418922 36878873
            37038720 36098683 32448854 31708910
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