[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 090344
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090343
TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ILZ000-ARZ000-090745-

Mesoscale Discussion 1701
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0943 PM CST Sat Dec 08 2018

Areas affected...Northeastern Arkansas...northwestern into northern
Tennessee...far southern Kentucky...and far southeastern Missouri

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation

Valid 090343Z - 090745Z

SUMMARY...Ongoing freezing rain event should continue over the next
several hours, with some mixing of sleet and snow also occurring
with time - especially in northeastern Arkansas.  Precipitation
rates will increase over the next hour or so as well, with 0.05-0.10
inch per hour rates becoming common.

DISCUSSION...Persistent bands of freezing rain continue across the
discussion area at this time, with 03Z upper air sounding from LZK
indicating a substantial (3 deg C) melting layer at around 900 mb.
Over the past several hours, accumulation rates have been mostly
light (around 0.03 in/hour).  Lift associated with a vorticity
maximum centered over southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana will
gradually result in an increase in accumulation rates both within
ongoing bands and also as an ongoing precipitation shield over much
of Arkansas migrates slowly eastward into the discussion area.
Precipitation rates should exceed 0.05 in/hour at times especially
beneath heavier bands.  Meanwhile, north-northeasterly low-level
wind fields were helping to maintain a sub-freezing near-surface
airmass and will continue to do so over time.  Some mixing of sleet
and snow are possible with time before precipitation subsides,
especially in western portions of the discussion area (northeastern
Arkansas through far southwestern Kentucky) as mid-level cooling
associated with the vorticity maximum approaches that region.

..Cook.. 12/09/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON   36199143 36569050 37038928 37068758 37158586 36958510
            36598525 36398655 36328729 36148774 35548958 35229080
            35349146 35669165 36199143
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