[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 062053
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062052
KYZ000-TNZ000-062245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1246
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 PM CDT Thu Jul 06 2017

Areas affected...South-central KY...Middle TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 062052Z - 062245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible across portions
of south-central KY and middle TN as a line of storms this
afternoon/evening.

DISCUSSION...Recent regional radar imagery has shown a slight
increase in the forward speed of the convective line moving across
south-central KY. The downstream airmass over south-central KY and
adjacent middle TN is moist and unstable, with recent mesoanalysis
estimating MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg. This downstream instability
is expected to result in general storm persistence for at least the
next few hours with some additional development southward into
middle TN possible. Additionally, per the OHX VAD, mid-level flow
from 30 to 35 kt exists over the area with some slight increase
possible later this afternoon/evening at shortwave trough continues
eastward. This kinematic environment is supportive of at least
modest storm organization, as evidenced by the organized convective
line. Continued forward propagation by the line will result in the
potential for strong/damaging wind gusts along the cold pool this
afternoon. Anticipated isolated/sporadic nature of the strong wind
gusts is expected to preclude the need for a watch but convective
trends will be monitored closely.

..Mosier/Hart.. 07/06/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...

LAT...LON   37028533 37588462 37688391 37408314 36148401 35488524
            35308617 35628738 37028533
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