[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 060223
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060222
TNZ000-060315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1239
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0922 PM CDT Wed Jul 05 2017

Areas affected...Portions of middle Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 060222Z - 060315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A small complex of strong/severe thunderstorms approaching
Nashville will likely maintain a damaging wind threat over the next
1-2 hours, before weakening later this evening. Watch issuance is
not expected.

DISCUSSION...Regional WSR-88D data depict a bowing complex of
thunderstorms progressing east towards Nashville this evening. Ahead
of this line, backed surface winds are modestly enhancing
storm-relative inflow, such that the line is generally maintaining
its vigor. Furthermore, adequate low-level shear (noted from recent
BNA VWP data) has supported the occasional development of
line-embedded vortices, also allowing the line to maintain its
overall organization. In turn, damaging gusts will remain possible
over the next hour or so; thereafter, increasing convective
inhibition should slow parcel ascent sufficiently to weaken the
line. Therefore, watch issuance is not anticipated.

..Picca/Thompson.. 07/06/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   35418817 36588769 36628628 36228602 35338631 35148713
            35178806 35418817

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