[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 082103
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082102
TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-082300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0160
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 PM CST Wed Feb 08 2017

Areas affected...Middle Tennessee...northern Alabama...and far
northeast Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 082102Z - 082300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Surface-based thunderstorms, some becoming severe, should
develop from north to south across middle Tennessee into northeast
Mississippi and northern Alabama this afternoon and evening, and
spread to the east.  Locally strong winds and hail will be the
primary severe-weather threats.

DISCUSSION...Trends in mesoscale analyses showed an ill-defined low
pressure area tracking from western into northern middle TN this
afternoon along a northeast-southwest oriented surface trough.
Clearing of earlier clouds across the discussion area allowed for
destabilization with MLCAPE around 500 J/kg already present in
middle TN.  A strong 60-70 kt midlevel jet now nosing into the Mid
South and TN Valley is resulting in bulk shear of 50-60 kt.  Forcing
for ascent within the exit region of this jet appears to be
supporting recent elevated storm development across portions of
western KY into northern middle TN.  Meanwhile, visible satellite
imagery showed cumulus continuing to develop, expanding in coverage
across western middle TN with greater vertical development.
Surface-based storms are expected to develop within the cumulus
field as the environment undergoes further destabilization, and
convection spreads east, with locally strong winds and hail being
possible with the stronger storms. 19Z HRRR continues to favor this
scenario for a few sustained storms in middle TN to northeast MS
developing by 23Z.

..Peters/Thompson.. 02/08/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   34418577 33968673 33808757 33888821 34088854 34898845
            35488801 36198724 36648657 36568547 36268523 34418577
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