[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 072258
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072257
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-080100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0153
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0457 PM CST Tue Feb 07 2017

Areas affected...Portions of southern IN...western KY...far southern
IL...far southeast MO...northwest TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 072257Z - 080100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Convection spreading across portions of the lower OH
Valley region and vicinity into the early evening hours could become
locally severe. However, the conditional nature of the severe risk,
and limited temporal window for such risk, along with the
anticipated limited coverage of the risk, should preclude Watch
issuance.

DISCUSSION...Convection developing along a wind-shift boundary
extending from west-central IN to far southern IL is producing
lightning north of the Paducah area. Recent visible satellite
imagery indicates shallow convective turrets evolving farther north
along this boundary in south-central IN. This activity lies along a
segment of the boundary that is intercepting a weakly destabilized
boundary-layer owing to antecedent insolation. There is some
potential for convection to continue to locally intensify prior to
nocturnal cooling and stabilization, while spreading
eastward/east-southeastward. Given the presence of around 150-250
m2/s2 of effective SRH and adequate deep shear, the risk for a
tornado or damaging wind gust cannot be entirely ruled out. However,
veered pre-frontal flow resulting in weak frontal convergence
(especially with southward extent) coupled with convectively
recycled air constituting inflow within the warm sector, should tend
to temper the severe risk and minimize convective coverage.

..Cohen/Hart.. 02/07/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   38588515 37228646 36508795 36418908 36678947 37088947
            37318873 37778765 38778640 38928564 38588515
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