[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 271924
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271923
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-272130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0277
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN IL...IND...WRN KY AND TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 271923Z - 272130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS MAY
ALSO MATERIALIZE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS RAPIDLY ADVANCING NWD ACROSS THE
REGION WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 50S F AS FAR N AS SWRN OH AND
CNTRL INDIANA. DEWPOINTS FURTHER RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S F FROM WRN
TN INTO NRN MS. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG
MLCAPE.

AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE...AND FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES
NEAR THE COLD FRONT...THE CAPPING INVERSION JUST BELOW 700 MB WILL
BE BREACHED...ALLOWING SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS TO
FORM. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE QUITE COOL WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND -20 C. THIS...COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
GENERALLY LONG STRAIGHT-LINE HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR CELLULAR
ACTIVITY...PERHAPS WITH A FEW SPLITS. LARGE HAIL IS A DISTINCT
THREAT...AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANY
TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF/WEAK GIVEN A DECIDED LACK OF
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...A FEW
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

..JEWELL/THOMPSON.. 03/27/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...OHX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...
MEG...LSX...

LAT...LON   35798746 35818900 36318942 37298936 38878856 40668763
            41418653 41698497 41568428 40798407 38938456 36938582
            35798746
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