[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 241755
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241754
KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-242030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0265
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN IL...SRN AND CNTRL IND...SW OH...WRN AND
CNTRL KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 241754Z - 242030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM NEAR THE IL-IND STATE-LINE EWD ACROSS PARTS
OF KY AND IND INTO SW OH. WW ISSUANCE MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 997 MB LOW OVER NE IL WITH
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SFC LOW SWD ACROSS ECNTRL IL INTO
FAR WRN KY. A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ACROSS WRN TN...WRN KY AND SW IND WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S F. ALTHOUGH SFC HEATING HAS BEEN SLOW TO
OCCUR TODAY IN THE OH VALLEY...WEAK INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED ALONG
THE MOIST CORRIDOR WHERE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HRRR
SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY ALONG SEVERAL
BANDS AS INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST WSR-88D VWPS FROM INDIANAPOLIS AND PADUCAH SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR
IN THE 55 TO 60 KT RANGE WITH 40 TO 50 KT OF FLOW AT 1 KM AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES. THIS MAY SUPPORT MULTICELL LINE
SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WHERE SFC TEMPS
ARE ABLE TO WARM ALONG ZONES OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MAY ALSO SUPPORT HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

..BROYLES/CORFIDI.. 03/24/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...OHX...IND...PAH...LOT...
ILX...

LAT...LON   40328460 41218624 41328731 40958783 40098824 38828836
            38628841 37548841 36798779 36628707 36518580 36898481
            38368422 40328460
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