[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 221636
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221636
TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-221900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1355
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1136 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SWRN KY...WRN/MIDDLE TN...FAR SERN
MO...FAR NERN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 221636Z - 221900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A CLUSTER OF TSTMS WILL SPREAD SWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS.
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY...THOUGH
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE CORES HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF MODEST
INTENSIFICATION IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE OF OUTFLOW
SPREADING SWD ACROSS PARTS OF WRN KY. THE AIR MASS S OF THE
CORRESPONDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE...WITH
STRONG SFC HEATING AMIDST DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 70S
SUPPORTING MLCAPE AROUND 2500-4000 J/KG. WITH SWELLING CU FIELDS
BECOMING EVIDENT S OF THE BOUNDARY...THERE IS GROWING CONCERN THAT A
MORE ABRUPT INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY WILL TAKE
PLACE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY COULD ALSO DEVELOP WWD
INVOF THE BOUNDARY INTO SERN MO AND NERN AR.

GIVEN THE DEGREE OF BUOYANCY...INTENSE CONVECTIVE CORES CAPABLE OF
STRONG MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE -- AIDED BY PRECIPITATION
LOADING. DEEP SHEAR IS WEAK...WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...LOCALLY CONSOLIDATING COLD POOLS MAY FOSTER
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF CONVECTIVE UPSCALE GROWTH AND MULTICELL
CLUSTERING -- PERHAPS ENCOURAGING SHORT CORRIDORS OF DMGG-WIND
REPORTS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEARTH OF DEEP SHEAR...CONVECTION IS
PRESENTLY EXPECTED TO BE TOO DISORGANIZED FOR WW ISSUANCE.

..COHEN/WEISS.. 07/22/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36239014 36698952 36788849 36758730 36128689 35478706
            35168791 35178993 35439032 36239014
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