[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 141443
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141442
KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-141645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1273
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0942 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WESTERN/MIDDLE TN...WESTERN/CENTRAL
KY...NORTHERN MS...NORTHWESTERN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 141442Z - 141645Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CLUSTERS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EASTWARD
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING AS THEY
DO SO. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE MAIN THREAT
BEING STRONG /OCCASIONALLY DAMAGING/ WIND GUSTS.

DISCUSSION...MORNING RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA EXHIBIT AN ONGOING
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY THIS MORNING. KNQA DATA SUGGEST NEW UPDRAFTS ARE QUICKLY
BEING UNDERCUT BY OUTFLOW PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS
KY...WITH A GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING AIR MASS TO ITS SOUTH...AS SFC
TEMPS HAVE ALREADY RISEN WELL INTO THE 80S. THE 12Z BNA RAOB SAMPLED
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM...AND FURTHER SFC HEATING SHOULD
YIELD MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG BY MID-DAY.

AIDED BY CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARIES...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY RE-ORGANIZE INTO A FEW
LARGER CLUSTERS/BOWING SEGMENTS THAT PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. IN COMBINATION WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP SHEAR...STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
RICH MOISTURE /AS WELL AS THE EXPECTED STORM MODE/ SUGGEST
OCCASIONAL STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE.

..PICCA/THOMPSON.. 07/14/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   34488818 34568998 34939009 35978891 37618772 37688741
            37728614 37748501 37458485 36248535 34988649 34628735
            34488818

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