[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 220453
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220453
KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-221000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0040
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1053 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN KY...NRN TN...AND SERN MO

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 220453Z - 221000Z

SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN WILL FURTHER EXPAND ACROSS THE MCD AREA OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH RATES OF SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
PER HOUR POSSIBLE. FREEZING RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SNOW
LATE TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS PCPN EXPANDING FROM
TN NWD INTO KY...WITH A SECONDARY EXPANSION ACROSS THE MO BOOTHEEL
IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MATURING DEFORMATION BAND. AS MID-LEVEL WAA
INCREASES TO THE EAST OF A DEEPENING LOW ALOFT OVER
LA/AR...ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND STRENGTHENING FRONTOGENETIC
CIRCULATIONS WILL FURTHER SUPPORT PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE
MCD AREA. WHILE SUB-FREEZING SFC TEMPS ARE NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THIS
AREA...A WARM LAYER NEAR 850 MB IS ENSURING MELTING OF SNOW ALOFT.
POLARIMETRIC DATA /I.E. CC AND ZDR/ FROM KHPX SUGGEST LITTLE
DESCENT/EROSION OF THIS MELTING LAYER...INDICATING THAT FREEZING
RAIN AND SOME SLEET WILL BE PREDOMINANT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH FZRA RATES OF SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH PER
HOUR POSSIBLE. SLOWLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FZRA/SLEET WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW GENERALLY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...AS THE
MID LEVELS COOL IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING CAA ALOFT. HEAVIER
SNOWFALL RATES WILL THEN DEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING...AS DEFORMATION
BANDING SPREADS EWD ACROSS WRN TN/KY.

..PICCA.. 01/22/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   35898868 35768963 35859027 36679052 37188884 37318618
            36968421 36408445 36278701 35898868
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