[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 200716
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200715
TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-201215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0031
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0115 AM CST WED JAN 20 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTHEAST AR INTO PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
TN

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 200715Z - 201215Z

SUMMARY...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EASTWARD FROM
FAR NORTHEAST AR INTO PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TN. FREEZING RAIN
RATES GENERALLY WILL BE AROUND 0.01 INCHES PER HOUR...BUT A FEW
LOCALLY HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FREEZING RAIN MAY BRIEFLY
CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE TURNING TO RAIN AFTER SUNRISE.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM AROUND AROUND
28 TO 31 DEGREES F ACROSS THE MCD AREA. THESE TEMPERATURES LIKELY
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT IN WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WARM SLIGHTLY AS A 50
KT SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ NOSES INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WARM ADVECTION AT 850 MB HAS
LED TO A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FOR FREEZING RAIN SHIFTING
EASTWARD FROM NORTHEAST AR INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL TN THROUGH 12Z.
FREEZING RAIN MAY BRIEFLY CHANGE TO SNOW AS COOLER MIDLEVEL AIR
PUSHES SOUTHWARD AFTER 12-15Z...BUT IS EXPECTED TO THEN TRANSITION
TO RAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING. THROUGH 12Z...FREEZING RAIN RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
GENERALLY BE LIGHT...AROUND 0.01 IN/HR...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER RATES
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR BRIEF PERIODS.

..LEITMAN.. 01/20/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...MEG...

LAT...LON   36019045 36178906 36248814 36268739 36198692 36078676
            35818675 35528692 35348714 35278748 35258855 35288957
            35309005 35509053 35709076 35839072 36019045
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