[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 282151
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282151
KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-282345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1911
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 PM CST Wed Dec 28 2016

Areas affected...Northern MS and western TN northeast into western
KY and middle TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 282151Z - 282345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms centered over western TN at this
time will pose a local risk for hail in excess of 1" in diameter.
However, a watch is not anticipated at this time.

DISCUSSION...Latest satellite and radar loops show increasing
elevated convection across the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio
Valleys, in a zone of low-level warm advection ahead of the
mid-level short-wave trough digging southeastward across the Plains.
 The convection is being supported by most-unstable CAPE likely in
excess of 500 j/kg, given the steep mid-level lapse rates observed
in morning RAOB data and model forecast soundings.

A few stronger cells -- with some mid-level rotation noted -- have
evolved over the past couple of hours, aided by amply strong speed
shear provided by near unidirectional west-southwesterly flow aloft,
increasing with height.  While wind risk should remain limited due
to the still-stable boundary layer, hail in the 1" to 1.75" range
will be possible with the strongest/rotating storms.

As the warm sector continues expanding slowly northward and the cold
front presses southeast toward the MS Valley, potential for
surface-based storm development -- and thus greater potential for
locally strong wind gusts -- will likely increase into this evening.

..Goss/Grams.. 12/28/2016

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   34589046 35828977 37308732 37108596 35648615 34848762
            34538902 34589046
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