[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 262131
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262131
KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-262330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1910
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0331 PM CST Mon Dec 26 2016

Areas affected...Far southern Illinois and adjacent western Kentucky
southwestward to southwest Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 262131Z - 262330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Bands of showers and scattered thunderstorms will continue
from the lower Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys southwest to the
Arklatex region.  While local severe/brief tornado potential will
exist with the strongest storms, risk should remain too low/isolated
to warrant watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Afternoon heating of a moist (60s dewpoints)
pre-frontal boundary layer has resulted in limited/gradual
destabilization, ranging from around 500 j/kg mixed-layer CAPE over
the lower Ohio Valley area to near 1500 j/kg in the Arklatex area.
Meanwhile, stronger flow aloft remains confined to areas from
roughly central Arkansas northeastward, resulting in a zone of most
favorable CAPE/shear juxtaposition from northeast Arkansas northeast
into western Kentucky.

In this region, storms have shown some increase in coverage and
intensity over the past 1-2 hours, with a couple of the strongest
cells showing occasional supercell characteristics.  One storm in
particular exhibited a brief tightening in low-level rotation as it
crossed northern Marshall County Kentucky, near the northeast fringe
of the axis of ample CAPE.

While a brief/weak tornado or two remain possible, gradually veering
flow with time should limit low-level shear -- and thus tornado
risk.  Meanwhile, risk for strong/gusty winds should maximize over
the next couple of hours (as storms continue to acquire some linear
organization), prior to the onset of diurnal cooling this evening.

..Goss/Grams.. 12/26/2016

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   36189081 37368874 37638773 37188765 36298835 34849110
            33699301 33749387 33869413 34709314 35569209 36189081
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