[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 302151
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302151
TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-302245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0517
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0451 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AL / SRN MIDDLE AND SERN TN / NWRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 302151Z - 302245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLD SEVERE RISK MAY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH STORMS EXHIBITING TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.  THE
MAIN THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...SMALL HAIL...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO.

DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY OVER NRN AL NEWD INTO SERN TN SHOWS
SEVERAL WEAK SUPERCELLS WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF WEAK TO MODERATE
BUOYANCY /750-1250 J PER KG MLCAPE/.  ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS
GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM THE SSW...SPEED SHEAR WITH HEIGHT IS A
COMPENSATING FACTOR AND LEADING TO A WIND PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING SHORTER-LIVED AND GENERALLY WEAK
UPDRAFT ROTATION.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD TO THE NE
ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION AHEAD OF A DRYSLOT/MID-LEVEL VORTICITY
LOBE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/MID SOUTH THIS EVENING.
A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...SMALL HAIL...AND PERHAPS A WEAK
SUPERCELL TORNADO THREAT MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.

..SMITH/HART.. 04/30/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...HUN...

LAT...LON   34798721 35218678 35698472 35148441 34628485 34488677
            34798721
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