[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 272028
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272028
ALZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-272230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0476
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SW KY...WRN TN...FAR NE MS...NW AND NCNTRL AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 272028Z - 272230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
WRN TN EXTENDING SWD INTO NW AND NCNTRL AL. WW ISSUANCE MAY NEED TO
BE CONSIDERED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A TONGUE OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM NRN MS NWD ACROSS FAR WRN TN INTO FAR WRN
KY. A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE
MOIST CORRIDOR AND IS LIKELY BEING AIDED BY LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTIVE BAND...A
THERMAL AXIS IS LOCATED FROM NCNTRL AL NWD INTO WCNTRL TN WHERE SFC
TEMPS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S F. IN RESPONSE TO SFC HEATING...A
POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ANALYZED ACROSS WRN TN AND WRN KY
WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. IN
ADDITION...THE WSR-88 VWP AT MEMPHIS SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30-35 KT
WITH VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. SFC OBS SHOW THIS
VEERED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXTENDING EWD INTO MIDDLE TN. THIS ALONG
WITH SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS APPROACHING 25 DEGREES F MAY BE
ENOUGH TO AID DOWNDRAFT ACCELERATION FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO SUPPORT HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

..BROYLES/CORFIDI.. 04/27/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36288925 34778838 33398779 33488689 34468649 36198703
            36828780 36878867 36288925
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