[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 081708
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081708
VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-081845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0937
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1208 PM CDT MON JUN 08 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL...SRN
KY...AND MUCH OF TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 081708Z - 081845Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO ALL POSSIBLE. WW ISSUANCE IS LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...SEVERAL BANDS OF CONVECTION ARE ONGOING AS OF 17Z
ACROSS THE MCD AREA...MOST LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH OUTFLOW FROM
EARLIER CONVECTION TO THE W AND AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT ADVANCING
SEWD ACROSS THE MO/IND/IL. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS KY/TN...WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING
TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. SLY TO SWLY WINDS HAVE
BROUGHT A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS OVER THE MCD AREA...WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. LATEST RAP
MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS MLCAPE HAS INCREASED INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG
RANGE...EVEN THOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SAMPLED BY THE 12Z
SOUNDING FROM NASHVILLE TN ARE ONLY AROUND 6 DEG C/KM.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL HEATING CONTINUES...AND A
SPEED MAXIMUM/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT MID LEVELS OVERSPREADS THE AREA
FROM THE W. WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND
35-45 KT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES...
INCLUDING BOWING CLUSTERS AND SOME SUPERCELLS...WILL LIKELY BE THE
PRIMARY STORM MODES INITIALLY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD
BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE GIVEN EFFECTIVE SRH AROUND 100 M2/S2.
HOWEVER...SFC WINDS VEERED TO SWLY MAY TEND TO LIMIT LOW-LEVEL
SRH...AND THEREFORE THE TORNADO THREAT. REGARDLESS...WW ISSUANCE IS
LIKELY IN THE NEXT HOUR.

..GLEASON/HART.. 06/08/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   35138771 35139021 35779085 36859082 37198897 37278618
            37038414 36808291 35088495 35138771
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