[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 021647
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021646
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-021915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0861
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1146 AM CDT TUE JUN 02 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...EAST TN...NORTHERN GA...NORTHERN SC...WESTERN
NC...SOUTHWEST VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 021646Z - 021915Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER
EASTERN TN INTO WESTERN NC AND ADJACENT REGIONS.  A FEW STORMS MAY
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL...BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TODAY.  A WW IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
FORMING OVER EAST TN INTO WESTERN NC.  THIS IS BENEATH AND JUST EAST
OF AN  UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR CSV.  RATHER COOL MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES /-13 TO -14 AT 500MB/ COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
60S AND SEVERAL HOURS OF MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SUNSHINE HAVE
RESULTED IN CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG.  LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
WEAK...BUT MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE SUFFICIENT TO AID IN SOME
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND A FEW STRONGER CORES.  RELATIVELY STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY RESULT IN HAIL IN THE STRONGER
STORMS...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

..HART/MEAD.. 06/02/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...OHX...
HUN...

LAT...LON   35788516 36378432 36988233 37207966 36607873 35987943
            35138121 34308280 34038468 34748560 35788516
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